Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $715,068$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{980,104.6}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 219.7)}}\) (asimptote \(980,104.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,664$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,516.3}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 230.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,516.3\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $139,299$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $321,326$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{421,015.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 207.8)}}\) (asimptote \(421,015.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,700$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,469.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 313.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,469.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,021$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $508,508$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{563,286.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 188.6)}}\) (asimptote \(563,286.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,482$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,361.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 160.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,361.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,369$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $119,186$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,900.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 136.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106,900.4\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,321$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,452.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 159.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,452.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,232$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,042$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,935.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 169.4)}}\) (asimptote \(90,935.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $332$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 161.0)}}\) (asimptote \(362.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,052$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $134,159$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{134,346.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 160.5)}}\) (asimptote \(134,346.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $826$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{772.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(772.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,428$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $64,360$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,218.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 126.1)}}\) (asimptote \(51,218.5\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,188$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,171.3}{1 + 10^{-0.896 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,171.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,866$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $351,849$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{340,780.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(340,780.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,590$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,565.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,565.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,557$ on 2020-11-11