Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Thailand
  • Tajikistan
  • India
  • Sri Lanka

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $715,068$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{980,104.6}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 219.7)}}\) (asimptote \(980,104.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,664$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,516.3}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 230.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,516.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $139,299$ on 2020-11-11

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $321,326$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{421,015.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 207.8)}}\) (asimptote \(421,015.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,700$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,469.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 313.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,469.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,021$ on 2020-11-11

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $508,508$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{563,286.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 188.6)}}\) (asimptote \(563,286.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,482$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,361.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 160.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,361.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,369$ on 2020-11-11

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $119,186$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,900.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 136.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106,900.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,321$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,452.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 159.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,452.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,232$ on 2020-11-11

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,042$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,935.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 169.4)}}\) (asimptote \(90,935.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 161.0)}}\) (asimptote \(362.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,052$ on 2020-11-11

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $134,159$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{134,346.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 160.5)}}\) (asimptote \(134,346.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $826$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{772.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(772.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,428$ on 2020-11-11

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $64,360$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,218.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 126.1)}}\) (asimptote \(51,218.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,188$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,171.3}{1 + 10^{-0.896 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,171.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,866$ on 2020-11-11

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $351,849$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{340,780.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(340,780.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,590$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,565.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,565.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,557$ on 2020-11-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Thailand recovered 93%
Israel recovered 89%
Saudi Arabia recovered 88%
Bahrain recovered 71%
Tajikistan recovered 70%
India recovered 52%
Sri Lanka recovered 19%

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,852$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,355.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 22.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,355.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(58.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-11-11

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,456$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,736.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,736.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $84$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(84.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $561$ on 2020-11-11

India⮸

Population $1,380,004,385$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,683,916$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,599,364.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 166.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,599,364.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-07 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $128,121$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,503.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.3)}}\) (asimptote \(144,503.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $489,294$ on 2020-11-11

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,350$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46$ on 2020-11-11

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,121$ on 2020-11-11